The United States had their backs to the wall, and then they did what they most often do in that situation—they came back swinging. After a lackluster defeat to Colombia in the opening game of the Copa America, the US soundly defeated Costa Rica 4-0 in one of the most comprehensive victories they’ve ever had in a big-stage tournament.
If you read my preview of the game (and why wouldn’t you?), you’ll note that I thought Costa Rica would play their typical—and successful—defensive formation, with counter-attacking in mind. Instead, and maybe somewhat inexplicably, they instead came out in a high press, and flooded the US half with players trying to force turnovers and turn them into quick goals.
Spoiler alert: It did not work.
When Costa Rica pressed earlier than anyone thought they would, the US took advantage, especially on the flanks, blowing past the fullbacks and forcing the central Costa Rican defenders to pick players to mark and spaces to fill. They did neither particularly well, and as a result the US was able to test Pemberton early and often. That led to what we all thought it would—multiple goals for the US. Contributions from Dempsey, Jones, Wood and Zusi sealed the best win the US has had in a long time. And none of this mentions the solid midfield play, or how well the back line stayed in formation and quickly flung balls out of danger—particularly John Brooks.
So when Costa Rica pressed high and lost possession in midfield, they left a lot of players ahead of the ball. The US countered often by rushing the ball up the flanks and not allowing Costa Rica to regain their form. These quick runs put a lot of pressure on players who don’t typically start for the team, and it left them often confused and in the wrong spots. The US took full advantage.
Yes, the Costa Rican strategy played right into the hands of the US, but so what? That’s what you’re supposed to do. Punish teams who don’t respect your ability to attack. As a result, the US now sits in second in the group, ahead on points and way ahead on goal differential—which may come into play depending on how Saturday’s game against Paraguay goes.
So, Paraguay…what’s the story there?
US vs. Paraguay – The Good News
The reason those four goals mean so much is that now the US will advance with a win. They’ll also advance with a draw, so long as Costa Rica doesn’t beat Colombia by seven goals. Seven. If you think that’s unlikely to happen, you’d be correct. It’s not going to happen. So basically, thanks to a much better goal differential, the US can now advance with a win or draw—but not a loss. A loss would mean Paraguay would be the other team from the group to move on. So this game is officially the “Just Don’t Lose” game.
Keep in mind that Paraguay has traveled a lot in this tournament. They’ve gone from Orlando to Pasadena to now Philadelphia. Lot of miles in there. Also keep in mind as a group, they’ve worked really hard on the pitch. The game against Colombia exemplifies this, as it was an end-to-end game for most of the match. There will be some tired legs in that squad.
Finally, Oscar Romero, the attacking midfielder who typically plays on the right flank for Paraguay, is out with a double-yellow red card in the last game. He was by far their most dangerous attacker, and he moved the ball upfield with pace, finding spaces and creating chances for others as well. They will miss him.
The Bad News
Paraguay might come out in a 4-2-3-1, but they’ll eventually morph into a 4-2-2-2. They crowd midfield very, very well, and they try to push things outside and then get back in form, protecting the goal. They also attack in similar fashion—right up the middle. Their center forward Dario Lezcano isn’t the most dangerous striker in the tournament, but he runs north and south very well, and shouldn’t be allowed space from Brooks or Cameron if/once he breaks free.
Paraguay is also solid on defense. Celso Ortiz is a very aggressive defensive midfielder, who likes to play in front of the back four, and while he’ll get upfield at times as well, he’s more inclined to stop the opposition’s progress than he is to push the action. He’s usually in front of Gustavo Gomez, the center back who has played very well so far, and who organizes the back line.
But the biggest challenge for the US will be the first 20-30 minutes. Paraguay has come out firing in each game early. They’ve pressed high, they’ve gotten guys forward, and they’re not afraid to commit to the attack early. I expect much of the same on Saturday. The US has to be cognizant of this, and they have to cover well and close down open spaces quickly if they’re going to withstand the initial onslaught. Then, maybe the US can counter and create some chances. But it will be critical early on to not allow Paraguay to take control of the game with a goal. If the US has to chase one early, it could be trouble.
The Other Stuff
The US doesn’t have to win the game, but that’s not to say they can just sit back and play for a 0-0 draw. They can’t. Paraguay will come at them early and often, so the US should take advantage of this. Get Johnson and Yedlin up on the flanks from counters, and let them either overlap the midfield, or allow guys like Jones and Bedoya to float into support.
I have no idea if Klinsmann will keep the same lineup, but I’m sure Dempsey will be there, and his play will be very important. Because Paraguay cover the middle of the field so well, it will be up to Dempsey to draw in defenders and hopefully find Wood or Zardes (or Pulisic? Nagbe? Please?) running in on goal. If he can stay composed and draw in defenders, it could be a big night.
The US will have to stretch Paraguay and make them work more than they want. Test the stamina of a team that’s not only traveled a bunch, but also played at a frenetic pace throughout this tournament. I don’t think the US can advance without scoring a goal, but that’s not such a tall order.
I think the US can get a goal. Or two. And I fully expect them to get a result from this game.
In fact, I expect them to win.
A Pleasant Conversation 